Transport

Decarbonization Strategy

The ETP proposes the reduction of transport emissions by switching to low-emissions transport technology and mode-shifting. The focus of the ETP analysis is on passenger vehicles which accounted for ~72% of transport emissions in 2020.
Additional emissions reduction is obtainable through mode-shifting from gasoline/diesel and hybrid vehicles to electric buses/2-3 wheelers.
There is opportunity for biofuel blending to serve as an interim decarbonization measure in the transition to an electric-based system. Electric vehicles are considered only realistic post-2030 therefore, in the interim, biofuels can help decarbonize the sector.

Net Zero Vision

Passenger-Vehicle Mix (%)

2020

2030

2050

  • GASOLINE/DIESEL
  • HYBRID
  • ELECTRIC VEHICLES

E-Mobility in nigeria

  • Mass Transit Bus
  • 2 Wheeler/Power Bike
  • Mini Bus
  • Passenger Vehicle
  • 3-Wheeler
  • Passenger Vehicle
    Battery Swap Station
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Oando Clean Energy Limited – Mass Transit Buses. Currently operating a Proof of Concept in Lagos with 2 buses across two routes
Hyundai Kona (Stallion Group) – Assembly & Charging Station (Lagos)
NADDC -Scooter EV charging stations: University of Lagos, University of Nigeria, Nsukka
Sterling Bank & Qore – Commercial EV Charging Station (Lagos) Electric Power bikes and Swap stations for courier and delivery services by eFTD (Lagos)
FCDO-LINKS + Sterling Bank PLC + (2) female cooperatives in Kano launched a pilot project 3-wheelers (tricycles) to support women. (Kano)
  • EV passenger vehicles – Possible EVs
  • Minibuses in Borno
GAC – EV Charging Station, Jabi Lake Mall, Abuja
The Gbamu-Gbamu project: Introduced electric two-wheelers to Gbamu Gbamu community in rural southwest in partnership with MAX, a mobility company, and Rubitec Solar, a renewable energy developer.
Nigerian made 14-seater E-buses by JET Motors EVs
EMVC – a 2/3 wheeler electric vehicle company – Ogun State
Saglev – Saglev is an American electric vehicle manufacturer that has commenced production at its state-of-the-art assembly plant in Ikorodu, Lagos.
NNPC New Energies Limited (NNPC) – NNEL (NNPC New Energies Limited) is a subsidiary of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and has launched Nigeria’s first Electric Vehicle (EV) charging station in Abuja.
Roxettes Motors – Roxettes Motors is an indigenous vehicle manufacturing plant that is set to kick-start operations at its 40,000-unit annual automobile assembly plant in Obu-Aku, Ukwa East Local Council of Abia State.
Jet Motors – headquartered in Lagos. Nigeria, has pioneered Africa’s first electric-powered van, the JET EV, which features a high-capacity lithium-ion phosphate battery, rapid charging, and a driving range of over 250 km.
Spiro – Africa’s largest electric vehicle (EV) player, introduced innovative electric bikes and advanced battery-swapping technology in Ogun State, Oyo, Lagos and Abuja.
Qoray – Launched Nigeria’s first fully solar-powered electric vehicle (EV) battery swap stations in Kano State.
Shafa Energy, in partnership with NNPC New Energies Limited (NNEL) and Nigus International, launched Nigeria’s first Electric Vehicle (EV) charging station in Abuja.
Nigus International is headquartered in Abuja and is actively involved in EV recharge stations using battery storage.
VoltaEV is a startup founded in Lagos. Nigeria. It designs and manufactures affordable, durable electric cars primarily for the Nigerian and African markets.
Hellobikee Located in Lagos, Nigeria. Built electric bikes that are used for sustainable daily deliveries. These bikes have a maximum speed of 40-45 km/h, a payload capacity of 120-300 kg, and a range of 90-120 km on a single charge. They also offer fleet management software, battery charging, and IoT features to optimize delivery operations.
Quadricycle Automobile 3-Wheelers – Lagos.
Trekk Scooters Based in Lagos, Nigeria. They are Africa’s first electric scooter-sharing platform.
Siltech World is based in Lagos, Nigeria. It has a showroom in Lagos and distribution centers in Abuja and Port Harcourt. Siltech focuses on 2, 3, and 4-wheelers.
Possible Electric Vehicle Solution Located in the Idu industrial area of Abuja, Nigeria, and has begun producing electric vehicles, focusing on minibuses, tricycles, and taxis.
Metro Africa Xpress Plans to raise $100 million to deploy electric vehicles in 10 African countries, including Nigeria.
Egoras EV Located in Rivers, Nigeria, and has begun producing the APEX 28, a blockchain-integrated electric vehicle.

Fuel Consumption in Transport Sector

Total Fuel Consumption in Transport Sector – PJ

  • liquid fuel
  • hydrogen
  • electricity

Key insights

  • By 2040, liquid fuel use drops significantly, while electricity and hydrogen use grows.
  • Most transport energy will come from electricity, with hydrogen playing a supporting role.
  • The sector sees a massive shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
  • Efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in overall energy demand despite growing transportation needs.

Underlying assumptions

  • Widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) across all transport modes by 2050.
  • Hydrogen infrastructure will grow to support sectors like heavy-duty trucking and aviation.
  • Efficiency gains in EV technology will help reduce overall fuel consumption.

Electric cars would drive the transition in 4 wheelers

Total Cars by engine type – ‘000 units

Key insights

  • The number of cars will continue to grow, with a significant shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) by 2060.
  • By 2060, nearly all cars will be electric, with fossil fuel cars phased out after 2045.
  • Fossil fuel-based cars rapidly decline post-2035 as EV technology becomes mainstream.
  • The transition reflects strong support for EV infrastructure and policies.

Underlying assumptions

  • Incentives, regulations, and charging infrastructure investments will drive the transition.
  • Advances in battery technology will make EVs more accessible to a broader market.
  • Fossil fuel-based cars will be phased out as stricter emissions regulations take effect.

Freight trucking needs could be supported by both electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Total Trucks by engine type – ‘000 units

  • liquid fuel
  • hydrogen
  • electricity

Key insights

  • Hydrogen and electric trucks increase steadily from 2035, replacing fossil fuel-based trucks
  • Hydrogen dominates heavy trucking by 2060, with full electrification for light trucks.
  • Truck ownership increases steadily, supporting growing freight demands.
  • Fossil fuel-based trucks are phased out after 2045, reflecting stricter emissions targets.

Underlying assumptions

  • Hydrogen trucks will be necessary for long-haul and heavy-duty applications.
  • EV and hydrogen infrastructure will expand to support the growing fleet of clean trucks.
  • Regulatory pressure on truck emissions will drive fleet transitions.

Buses

Total Buses by engine type – ‘000 units

Key insights

  • Public transportation demand continues to grow, with electric buses dominating by 2060.
  • All buses are projected to be electric by 2055, phasing out fossil fuel buses.
  • The share of electric buses increases significantly from 2035 onwards.
  • The bus sector becomes a major player in transport decarbonization efforts because of modal shift and improvement in the public transportation.

Underlying assumptions

  • Government investment in electric bus infrastructure will drive adoption.
  • Public transit policies will support the shift to electric buses through incentives and stricter emissions regulations.
  • EV technology will continue improving, making electric buses more reliable and cost-effective than liquid-fuel alternatives.

2/3 Wheelers

Total 2/3 wheelers by engine type – ‘000 units

  • liquid fuel
  • electricity

Key insights

  • Electric 2/3 wheelers grow significantly from 2040 onward, surpassing fossil fuel models by mid-century.
  • Total units increase rapidly, driven by electrification and growing demand for 2/3 wheelers.
  • The shift to electric vehicles is clear after 2040, with fossil fuel 2/3 wheelers phased out by 2055.
  • Electric 2/3 wheelers are likely to be favored in urban areas due to affordability, efficiency, and reduced emissions.

Underlying assumptions

  • Support for EV infrastructure and incentives for electric 2/3 wheelers will accelerate adoption.
  • Improvements in battery range and charging infrastructure make electric 2/3 wheelers more viable for consumers.
  • Increased urbanization drives demand for cost-effective, clean transportation solutions like electric 2/3 wheelers.
Group 8882 (2)

barriers AND
Potential actions

Group 8883 (2)

BArriers

  • High initial costs of EVs
  • Limited public transport options
  • Inadequate charging infrastructure
  • Poor vehicle fuel economy
  • Skills gap in EV technology
  • Limited job opportunities in green industries

potiential actions

  • Introduce tax incentives for purchase of electric vehicles, particularly in the 2/3-wheeler segment to be competitive to 2/3 wheelers based on ICE (internal combustion engine). 
  • A public e-bus transport policy with additional incentives for public transport operators to transition to electric buses.
  • Provide tax deductions or exemptions for companies that invest in developing EV charging stations and related infrastructure.
  • Introduce fuel efficiency standards for passenger cars to be aligned with major export markets to ensure that new and used vehicles in the country meet certain minimum fuel economy standards.
  • Introduce biofuel mixing into conventional fuels with progressive standards
  • Policy on quality checking of import of used vehicles
  • Partner with technical institutes and universities to create specialized certification programs for EV technology, renewable energy systems, and green infrastructure development.

Transport demand to increase with more urbanization and industrialization with increasing GDP per capita

Demand projections per transport mode, bVKM

  • agriculture motive power
  • 2/3 wheelers
  • buses
  • cars
  • Trucking
  • The transport demand is projected to come mainly from 2/3 wheelers and cars in 2060.
  • The demand from agriculture motive power and buses in insignificant.
Parameter 2020 2030 2050
Emissions (MTCO2)
45.71
45.71
28.41
Fuel (PJ)
623.39
651.38
717.58
Emissions for Passenger Cars (MtCO2)
37.38
36.97
18.32
Vkm Passenger Car (billion km)
205.74
252.11
381.20
Vkm 2/3 Wheelers (billion km)
47.00
84.49
272.88
Vkm Trucks (billion km)
9.00
10.91
16.00
Vkm Buses (billion km)
2.00
2.52
5.00
Number Cars (million)
12.10
14.83
22.42
Number 2/3 Wheelers (million)
6.71
12.07
38.98
Number Trucks (million)
0.28
0.34
0.50
Number Buses (million)
0.08
0.10
0.20

Milestones:

2030

Vector

10% biofuel blend rate

2036

Vector

30% biofuel blend rate

2050

Group 667

20% reduction in km travelled by passenger car through mode shift to public transport/E2 and 3 wheelers. 13 billion EVs (60% of total market) 60 EV charging stations

2060

100% EVs

2030

Vector

10% biofuel blend rate

2036

Vector

30% biofuel blend rate

2050

Group 667

20% reduction in km travelled by passenger car through mode shift to public transport/E2 and 3 wheelers. 13 billion EVs (60% of total market) 60 EV charging stations

2060

100% EVs