Flash

Power

Power Sector Transitions

  • mini grid
  • SHS
  • grids

5Mn

Solar home systems connections, mostly in sparsely populated areas

8400GWh p.a. & 3.6GW

Total electricity supplied to unelectrified residential households

8.9Mn  Mini-grid

connections (104.8k mini-grids) in densely populated areas further from existing grid infrastructure

$25.8Bn

Total nominal investment needed for universal access

5.4Mn

Grid connections in densely populated areas within close proximity of existing grid infrastructure

106 Mn & 19.3 Mn

Additional people and residential households reached respectively

Power | Installed capacity mix (GW) – driven by a high share of solar, gas and hydrogen

  • coal
  • oil
  • gas on-grid
  • gas embeded

Key insights

  • Total installed capacity increases by 6.8 times between 2020-2060.
  • High increase of centralized technologies from 34% in 2020 to 94% in 2060 with an annual growth rate of 8%.
  • Diesel decentralized technologies are gradually  phased out from 23 GW in 2020 to 3.5 GW (mini-grids) in 2060.
  • Renewable energy technology share increases from 5% in 2020 to 82% in 2050, excluding hydrogen.
  • Significant uptake of solar PV in 2050, reaching to 209 GW while hydropower reaches to 11 GW in 2060 from 2 GW in 2020 due to need to dispatchable power.
  • Uptake of biomass (6 GW) and hydrogen (36 GW) in replacement of gas (11.8 GW) by 2060, due to zero emission constraints in 2060 and need of dispatchable power.
  • Increased penetration of battery storage (130 GW), and hydrogen storage (35 GW) for security of supply due to penetration of renewables by 2060.

Overall assumptions

There is enough renewable energy potential of solar PV, hydropower and biomass in the country

Power | Generation mix (TWh) driven by a high share of solar and hydropower

  • coal
  • oil
  • gas on-grid
  • gas Captive

Key insights

  • Electricity generation increases by 6.5 times between 2020-2060, with an annual growth rate of 32% due to universal electrification in 2030.
  • Oil and gas decentralized generators replaced by centralized technologies due to achievement of universal electrification in 2030 and decarbonization objective in 2060.
  • Significant uptake of solar PV in 2060 of 446 TWh due to replacement of gas to achieve net zero emissions.
  • Increase of biomass reaching to 32 TWh in 2060 in replacement of gas and need of dispatchable power.
  • Increase of hydropower generation, 39 TWh in 2060 and hydrogen of 4 TWh due to limited fossil fuel generation and need of dispatcable power.
  • Increased penetration of battery storage (0.5 TWh) and hydrogen storage (0.14 TWh) for security of supply due to increased penetration of renewables and hydrogen.

Overall assumptions

There is enough renewable energy potential of solar PV, hydropower and biomass in the country

Power | Hydrogen Production mix (PJ) – driven by a high share of green hydrogen

  • Blue hydrogen
  • green hydrogen
  • Grey hydrogen

Key insights

  • Increased penetration of hydrogen reaching to 404 PJ in 2060.
  • Uptake of hydrogen for replacement of gas and decentralized diesel due to zero emissions target in 2060 and security of supply.
  • Increased penetration of renewables in the future leads to green hydrogen growth from 2030 onwards, reaching to 228 PJ in 2060.
  • Blue hydrogen generation reaches to 176 PJ in 2060, replacing gas due to Net zero emission trajectory.

Overall assumptions

  • There is enough renewable energy potential in the country for production of green hydrogen.
  • Gas could be used for blue hydrogen production.
  • Development of an efficient hydrogen infrastructure.
Vector

Barriers

Vector
  • Significant electricity access gap
  • Unreliable grid supply and affordability
  • High transmission and distribution losses and lack of capacity
  • High system costs and low investor attraction
  • Regulatory uncertainties for project development
  • Lack of energy transition planners

potential actions

Enhance Policy, Strengthen Regulations and Institutional Framework: 

  • Develop clear, transparent regulations for energy generation and distribution, encouraging competition and investment in the sector.
  • Develop standards and labeling program for main energy consuming appliances such as motors, pumps, air-conditioners, fans, cookstoves etc.
  • Examine a comprehensive policy for developing sustainable biofuels in the country
  • Develop policies that encourage private sector participation in renewable energy projects, such as tax incentives, subsidies, or guaranteed power purchase agreements (PPAs).
  • Ensure that electricity tariffs are cost-reflective but also consider affordability for low-income households. 
  • Educate consumers about energy-saving practices and the benefits of energy-efficient appliances.
  • Strengthen capacity of the energy transition planning within the energy planning units of the government.

Capacity and Generation expansion plan: 

  • Accelerate the deployment of mini-grids, SHS , and grid densification for 100% electricity access by 2030.
  • Install decentralized technologies in locations closer to the demand load centers to decrease distribution costs and provide more reliable electricity and closer to the national grid to be connected in the future.
  • Deploy T&D capacity and extension particularly to service manufacturing and industrial zones
  • Implement a national losses reduction program on reducing the transmission and distribution losses,
  • Streamline the permitting process for power projects development , particularly focus on clean energy technologies
  • Deploy a smart metering program for accurate billing and load management by the utilities.
  • Develop an energy and climate resilient power system that has diverse energy sources and can withstand extreme weather events.
  • Develop a National Green Hydrogen Mission 
  • Improve the utilization of existing power plants

Power Sector demand growth in buildings and industries would be driven by GDP

  • Residential electric use
  • comercial electric use
  • oil based chemichal
  • other industries

Demand projections per sector, (TWh)

  • Population projections are estimated to reach to 474.5 million by 2060
  • GDP per capita projections to reach to 8,726 USD
  • Total electricity demand in residential, commercial, oil-based chemicals and other industries will reach to 1,910 TWh by 2060
  • Coal
  • Oil
  • Natural Gas
  • Uraniun

Fuel cost, USD/GJ

  • The fuel costs of natural gas and coal are expected to increase at a similar rate over the modelling period
  • Oil prices show an increased growth in the future
  • Overall, natural gas and biofuels have the highest fuel costs
  • Electricity imports and exports are assumed to be constant over the modelling period